Deck-Building Odds: How Many Copies Should You Play?
The math behind 60-card Pokémon TCG decks. Opening-hand odds for 1 to 4 copies, how often cards are prized, mulligan rates by Basic Pokémon count, and what to do with the numbers.
Last updated · 3 min read
Every Pokémon TCG deck is a probability problem. You choose how many copies of each card to play, and the shuffle decides the rest. Knowing a few numbers makes it much easier to decide between a 3-of and a 4-of, or whether a single copy of a key card is too risky.
All numbers below are exact for a 60-card deck. To try your own deck, use the probability calculator.
Opening-hand odds
Your opening hand is 7 cards. The chance of having at least one copy of a card in it:
| Copies in deck | In opening 7 | By your first turn (8 cards) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11.7% | 13.3% |
| 2 | 22.1% | 25.1% |
| 3 | 31.5% | 35.4% |
| 4 | 39.9% | 44.5% |
Even a 4-of is in your opening hand less than half the time. That is why consistent decks rely on search cards (cards that find a specific Pokémon or Trainer from the deck) and draw Supporters, rather than hoping to draw a single card naturally. Counting all the cards that can get you to a key piece gives a much better picture than counting the piece alone.
How often cards are prized
You set aside 6 Prize cards from your deck, so on average 10% of your deck is in the Prizes. For a single card, the chance that at least one copy is prized:
| Copies in deck | At least 1 prized | All copies prized |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| 2 | 19.2% | 0.85% |
| 3 | 27.5% | 0.058% |
| 4 | 35.1% | 0.003% |
A single copy of a key card is stuck in your Prizes in 1 game out of 10. With 2 copies, losing both is under 1%. This is the main reason most players play at least 2 copies of anything their deck cannot function without, and a common reason to include cards that let you look at or take Prize cards.
Mulligan rates
If your opening 7 cards have no Basic Pokémon, you must mulligan: reveal, reshuffle and draw 7 again, and your opponent may draw an extra card. Your mulligan rate depends on how many Basic Pokémon your deck runs:
| Basic Pokémon | Chance of a mulligan |
|---|---|
| 8 | 34.6% |
| 10 | 25.9% |
| 12 | 19.1% |
| 14 | 13.9% |
| 16 | 9.9% |
| 20 | 4.8% |
Some cards let you search for a Basic Pokémon but do not count as one themselves, so they do not reduce your mulligan rate. Only the Basic Pokémon cards count.
Putting it together
- Count outs, not copies. If three different cards can all find your main attacker, you effectively have more than four copies.
- Two copies is the minimum for a must-have card, because a single copy is prized 10% of the time.
- A 3-of versus a 4-of changes your opening odds by about 8 percentage points. That is often worth a slot for your most important early card and rarely worth it for a late-game card.
- Very low Basic counts save space but cost games. If you run fewer than 10 Basics, expect to mulligan in about a quarter of your games.
Using PTCG Companion
The probability calculator shows all of these numbers for any deck size, number of copies and Basic Pokémon count, plus the full distribution of how many copies you will open with or find in your Prizes. Your last inputs are saved on your device, so you can come back to them while you tune a list.
