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Pokémon TCG Probability Calculator

Enter how many copies of a card are in your deck to see the chance of drawing it in your opening hand, by your first turn, or having copies stuck in your Prize cards. Enter your Basic Pokémon count to see your mulligan rate.

At least 1 in your opening hand

39.9%

At least 1 in the first 8 cards

44.5%

At least 1 prized

35.1%

All copies prized

<0.01%

1 in 32,509

Chance of a mulligan

19.1%

How many copies you get

ExactlyIn opening handIn Prize cards
0
60.1%
64.9%
1
33.6%
30.5%
2
5.9%
4.4%
3
0.38%
0.22%
4
<0.01%
<0.01%

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How the odds are calculated

Drawing from a shuffled deck is a hypergeometric problem: there is a fixed number of copies in a fixed-size deck and you draw without putting cards back. The calculator uses the exact hypergeometric formula, not a simulation, so the numbers are exact for a fairly shuffled deck.

Your Prize cards are 6 random cards from the same shuffled deck, so the chance that a card is prized does not depend on what you drew first. On average, 10% of your deck (6 of 60 cards) is in the Prizes.

Useful numbers for a 60-card deck

With 4 copies of a card, you see at least one in your opening 7 cards about 40% of the time, and at least one is prized about 35% of the time. With 1 copy, it is prized 10% of the time, which is why players run 2 copies of key cards or include ways to search the deck.

Your mulligan rate depends on how many Basic Pokémon you run. With 10 Basics the chance of opening with none is about 26%; with 14 Basics it falls to about 14%; with 20 it is about 5%.

Cards seen by your first turn

Both players draw at the start of every turn, including the player who goes first. So by the time you play your first card you have seen 8 cards (7 in your opening hand plus 1 draw). Use the "cards seen" setting to model extra draws from Supporters or search effects.

Frequently asked questions

What is the chance of prizing all 4 copies of a card?

In a 60-card deck it is about 0.003%, roughly 1 game in 32,000. Prizing 2 or more of 4 copies happens in about 4.6% of games.

Does a mulligan change the odds?

After a mulligan you shuffle and draw a fresh 7, so the odds for the new hand are the same as the first one, except that you know it contains at least one Basic Pokémon.

Can I use it for groups of cards?

Yes. Enter the total number of cards that do the same job, for example all your draw Supporters, as the number of copies.

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